China–Pakistan–Bangladesh. Photo for representation
In a significant development in regional geopolitics, a China–Pakistan–Bangladesh trilateral meeting held in Kunming has sparked speculation over the formation of a new multilateral South Asian bloc, potentially designed to replace the now-defunct SAARC. The meeting is being seen by many as an attempt to recalibrate regional cooperation in South Asia—one that could proceed without India, which has traditionally played a leading role in the region.
According to the Economic Times, the trilateral dialogue, hosted in China’s Yunnan province, brought together officials from China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Though officially labelled as a forum for regional development and cooperation, the closed-door nature of the talks and the geopolitical backgrounds of the participants have led observers to believe this could be the beginning of a new strategic alignment. Notably, this comes as SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) has remained paralyzed for nearly a decade due to India–Pakistan tensions.
The SAARC summit process came to a standstill after the 2016 summit in Islamabad was boycotted by India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Afghanistan, largely in response to cross-border terrorism and diplomatic breakdowns. Since then, alternative forums such as BIMSTEC have emerged, but the absence of a comprehensive South Asian economic and security platform has left a vacuum that China may now be aiming to fill.
Officials close to the matter suggest that the Kunming meeting discussed ideas for forming a flexible new grouping that could eventually bring in countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, and possibly even Afghanistan. Interestingly, though Bangladesh’s officials clarified that the talks were not political, their participation itself indicates an openness to exploring regional frameworks beyond India’s influence.
From Pakistan’s perspective, this is a clear opportunity to realign regional ties with China at the center. Islamabad has long pushed for a regional platform that excludes India, frustrated by the lack of SAARC progress and motivated by its deepening economic and defense partnership with Beijing under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
China, for its part, appears eager to consolidate its strategic footprint in South Asia. With its Belt and Road Initiative facing pushback in multiple countries, especially India, forming a new grouping may be Beijing’s way of reasserting influence through soft power and infrastructure diplomacy.
India has so far not responded officially to the Kunming trilateral, but New Delhi has in recent years sought to strengthen its role in BIMSTEC and the Indian Ocean Region, while also engaging actively in platforms like the SCO and the Indo-Pacific Quad. However, a formal China-led grouping with South Asian nations, minus India, could raise strategic red flags in Delhi, especially if such a bloc gains traction or expands into economic or security domains.
Experts caution that while the idea of a new bloc is still in a nascent stage, the geopolitical implications are serious. A China–Pakistan–Bangladesh-led regional initiative would not only isolate India but could also offer smaller South Asian nations a tempting alternative to India-centric frameworks, particularly if coupled with economic incentives and infrastructure deals.
For now, no official charter or expansion plan has been released. The Kunming meeting may be just the beginning of informal consultations before any formal multilateral structure is announced. Still, the message is clear: with SAARC defunct, China and Pakistan are looking to shape the next chapter of regional cooperation in South Asia—one that reflects their strategic interests and excludes old fault lines.
Whether this new bloc gains legitimacy and wider membership will depend on how it addresses regional concerns, particularly around sovereignty, transparency, and inclusiveness. And India, whether by engagement or silence, will have to decide how to position itself in response to this emerging regional realignment.
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